leonebacktoaaa

I just got done reading a funny piece on www.leoneforthird.org . They had a list of this years Cy Young winner in the National League, then had in parenthesis a list of people they thought should win based on VORP. While this site loves to use statistics to back up their arguments they lack the common sense to use the information given to come to a logical conclusion.

For example if you look at the statistics for both Randy Johnson and Roger Clemons you will see that Randy's statristics are slightly better than Randy Johnsons. Randy pitched 245 innings, had a whip of .90 and had 290 strikeoutsand an era of 2.60. Very impressive indeed. Roger Clemons pitched just 214 innings had a whip of 1.16 and an era of 2.92 and 218 strikeouts. Now the entire world could see that Randy Johnson has better statistics than Roger Clemons. What this doesnt tell you is Roger Clemons pitched for a team that was in contention for a playoff birth the entire season long. Roger also pitched 1/2 of his starts in a place that makes most pitchers era's rise. He was switching leagues also. Roger had an 18-3 record and deserved to win the Cy Young award. Randy record was 16-14 and while he did play for a last place team his pitching did not lead to more team wins. He was not pitching in pressure games the entire second half, nor did he play in a extreme hitters park. No offense to VORP, but the system(or website writers) was wrong about who should have won NL Cy Young, Roger deserved to win it and he did.

Do the Mariners need to aquire Adrian Beltre and Carlos Beltran to be competative in 2005?



Fiction:
The Mariners can be very competative in 2005 without Beltran and Beltre. The Mariners do need to aquire 2 big bats. The Mariners do not need to bankrupt the future to do it. Beltre is a hug question mark at 3rd base, only having 1 good season since he was a rookie in 1998. 12 million dollars a year is alot to spend on a question mark. The Mariners could get a better value by getting Troy Glaus. Glaus has a better career ops and sl;g% than beltre, is still young at 28 and has the capacity to lead the league in HR. This should be the Mariners #1 option imo.
Beltran while still young at 28, and he would be a great addition, we have a more pressing need at 1b. We have Ibanez, Winn, Ichiro in the of, the mariners 3 most productive players in 2004. With young reed ready to take over CF if Winn falters. Mariners need a 1b more than a CF. Carlos Delgado would be a perfect fit. Has power to RF which is easier to hit HR at Safeco than to LF. He hits for average too. If we aquire these 2 players we could compete in 2005.

The Mariners should pursue Carl Pavano or Brad Radke as free agent pitchers.


Fiction: The Mariners rotation should be much improved if we get a better offense. Piniero will be healthy, With Jaime Moyer #2, Meche #3 (he still has stuff to be a #1 or #2, franklin is great at giving you 200+ innings, with rookie Masdrisch #5. f Masdritsch proves he is not able to win the job in ST we can still aquire a pitcher then or use Nageotte, or Blackley or Baek. Pavano has not been consistent in his career and Radke would be ok if we got him for 6-7 million a year. Otherwise we are ok at SP in 2005.


The Mariners can be competative with this as the 25 man roster.




OF
Ichiro
Winn
Ibanez
Reed
(F/A? )

INF
Delgado
Boone
Lopez
Glaus
Spiezio (1b 2b 3rd)
Willie B (SS, 2ND, OF)
Bucky DH-1B

C
Wilson
Olivio

SP
Piniero
Moyer
Meche
Franklin
Masdrisch

RP
Guardado
Mateo
Putz
Villone
Hasagawa
Atchinson.


Fact.

I just got done reading www.Leoneforthird.blogspot.com report on last year's team. While they make some very good points, they need to come to grips with some items.

The 1st item they need to have a better grasp at is when a player starts to decline. In the 70's and for part of the 80's it was safe to say a players peak years in baseball was 27-30. It was believed that most players start to decline when they hit 30 years old. In today's game that is no longer true. Players have the ability to keep in shape all year round. The ability to come back from major surgery and perform the way you did before the surgery is remarkable as well. The fact that you now see ballplayers playing at a high level until they are 34-35-36-37 is also a sign that players peak years have increased. My best guess (from research I have done based on the information I gathered from Sporting News 2004 statistical book) is that a players peak years are now 27-34. A player will start to decline his abilities by the time he reaches the age of 35. That is depending on the individual, what injuries he had etc.


The 2nd item they need to get over is to keep claiming Raul Ibnez has exceeded expectations in 2004. I do not see how they can claim this. Since Raul has become an everyday player he has consistently put up consistent numbers. In 2002 he had BA .294, obp% 346 slg%537, 2003 BA 294 obp% 345 slg% 454, 2004 BA .304 obp% 353 slg% 472. While Raul does not walk enough to put his OBP around 390 (like most power hitters) he does slg at a good percentage to be a consistent good hitter. With a better cast of players around, Ibanez will be productive again in 2005.



The last item I need to harp on is Justin Leone. Do they actually believe Justin Leone will get 600 at bats in 2005? He does not even deserve 60 at bats. How do they justify this? It is very admirable to like a ballplayer and try to promote them. At some point you would think that the folks at www.leoneforthird.blogspot.com would actually look at Leone's stats in the minor leagues. They are average at best and average at best minor leaguers hardy even make it to the major leagues, no less get 600 at bats.


Other than those 3 points the article was a good read.


Have a great election day.

Remember today is election day, a day when everyone has a different opinion on who should be President Of The United States. My choice for President is John Kerry. It was not an easy choice. On one hand Bush has shown a show of force in the middle east and has not backed down on his position. Should we let President Bush try to finish what he started? Did President Bush make the world a safer place to live? Does President Bush allow his personall belief's cloud his opinion's on what is best for this country? These are the questions I had to answer before I made my vote. I filled out the entire ballot before making my selection for President. In the end I chose Kerry.

Why?

1) Because I think Bush has not made the world a safer place. He has isolated The U.S. government from the rest of the world.
2) Bush's religious belief's have got in the way of rational thinking. This happened in the war in Iraq and at home. In the war in Iraq he has been quoted to state " GOD'S Belief all people are to be free". While this may be true(if there is a GOD), is it the United States duty to ensure all people of the world are free? I do not believe so. It is our duty to try and promote freedom to anyone who wants it, but it is not our duty to invade country's and force freedom upon them.
Bush's belief to not to use embritic stem cells as research is another cause for concern. If there was a GOD you would think that if we saved lives from this research that GOD would be happy about this. If the embryo used is going to be "flushed" down the toilet anyway, why not use them for research? It just does not make sense not to do the research.

will boone return to his 2003, 2002, 2001 numbers


I believe boone can come back to put up numbers as he did from 2001-2003. If m's build a lineup around him, with quality players like Delgado and Glaus to protect him in the lineup, he will easily return to form in 2005. Fact.



Will Ibanez or Winn be traded befoire the start of the 2005 season.


I say no, for several reasons. 1) not an outfielder (CF) on the open market that we could fit under our payroll (beltran is out for this obvious reason.) 2) We have bigger holes at 3rd base and 1b to fill. Ibanez and Winn were both very productive for this team last year, and with better players around them means better chance their numbers could improve from 2004.

Fiction.


Would the m's be better off signing Beltran to a long term big money contract and have Leone at 3rd and Bucky at 1b.

Fiction, While Beltran would provide a quality outfielder for the m's both Leone and Bucky are still huge question marks. Leone showed he has a long ways to go both offensivly and defensivly before he is ready for the big leagues. While I thibk Bucky would be better suited as part time 1B-DH in 2005. Where would Reed play if that happened. Ibanez is not a good defensive at 1b, and is too productive to leave out of LF (472 SLG%) and Reed is still unproven. Our offensive lineup would suffer if we went with this plan.



That is todays version of fact or fiction.

I am going to compile a list of Free Agents that Mariners front office may try to go get in the off-season. While there are some big name free agents, like Beltran and Beltre, the Mariners will probably not offer either of these players a free agent contract. Not that they would not help the Mariners in 2005, but they are both represented by hated agent Scott Boras, who used the Mariners in December of 2000 with Alex Rodriguez.

Here is the list of Free Agents the M's might go after in 2005(of course they will not go after them all.

Starting with the outfield. Not many choices worth taking a look at that the Mariners can offer.
J.D. Drew another Boras client, but one that may not get a huge deal because of his past injuries.
Magglio Ordonez, probably too far out of our price range but if we can get him we should.
Moises Alou would be a good fit as a DH, but he has said in the past he does not want to be a DH. Age is another question.

These are the only good choices; doubtful the Mariners will get any of them.

Next position is catcher. Really not many choices there either. Re-sign Dan Wilson, or Sign former farm hand Jason Varitek. Probably not going to get Varitek, Dan Wilson will be a Mariner starting the 2005 season with Olivio.

Inf- we have a lot of options here. If Bill Maler.com is correct and Nomar is willing to take a 1-year contract as a Free Agent he might be a great fit at SS until 2006 letting Jose Lopez get another year at AAA.
Troy Glaus would be a great fit in the NW. He is huge 6-4 225, with his power he can hit it out of any park Safco will not be a deterrent to him. Plays as good as defense as Beltre (comparable fielding pct, ZR % for their careers.
Carlos Delgado had a huge 2nd half for the Blue Jays. He proved he is healthy and can still mash the ball. Another excellent fit at Safco, can hit for avg, and power.
Edgar Renteria is another free agent worth taking a look at, although I doubt the Cardinals would let him go, and the Mariners have more pressing needs at 1B and 3rd base.
Richie Sexon is another big bat that Safco will not restrict his power. Is from the northwest, however would not be a good fit with troy glaus if the Mariners sign him for 3rd base. Both big right-handed power guys whom strikeout a lot, not very smart having 2 players like this in the same lineup.

Starting Pitchers.

Derek Lowe. Safco would help him and his sinker out a lot. Would be a nice fit with Moyer Piniero, Meche and Masdritch, be able to move Franklin back to long relief.
Russ Ortiz- If Atlanta does not resign him he has very good stuff. He always wins 15-17 games a season with 200+ innings. Definitely worth taking a look at.
Matt Clement, has always had good stuff but can never put it all together for one good season. Questions about him still surface, now with his 3rd big league club.
Benson of the Mets/Pirates (last year) is very interesting choice. He is fully recovered from arm injuries in 2002. Some projected him as an ace of a staff when he came out of college. He would benefit from pitching at Safco.


Relief Pitching
If we do not resign Guardado, Troy Percival is a free agent. Still throws 95 mph with an excellent curve ball. Would be nice to have that fireballer in the 9th inning again.
Only other relief pitchers worth looking at are Klien of St. Louis and our own Ron Villone.

Allot of posters on the ESPN mariner message board seem to think that Justin Leone is a good defensive 3rd baseman. These very same posters are statistical geeks, but when they are faced with overwhelming facts about how bad his defense.

In 2003 at AA San Antonio, he played in 123 games at 3rd base, he committed 20 errors. That equates to be about 27 errors over a course of a 162 game season.

In 2002 he committed 23 errors in 96 games, again hardly stellar 3rd base play.

In 2004 in 28 games at 3rd base at the Major League level he committed 8 errors. In 69 total games at AAA Tacoma he had a total of 15 errors.

These same posters on the ESPN message board would "settle" for Leone at 3rd if mariners were to sign J.D. Drew (yes often injured J.D. Drew). This would be a disaster in my opinion. We need to upgrade 3rd base 1b if we need to have any success in Seattle in 2005, and having Justin Leone at 3rd base would be a step backwards not a step forward.

Finally a blog site that gets the facts correct about Justin Leone and the Mariners.

I will do comparisons on players of equal value. There will be no eqa to inflate someone's stats, or no VORP (after all it is not too difficult to figure out who was the best player, best reliever with stat already available.) You will see intangibles. Yep that is correct, the human element. Those intangibles that help make a player like Derek Jeter the icon that he is. While most stat geeks will look at his OPS and EQA they fail to look at what his attitude and his desire to win bring to a ball club. Stat geeks fail to recognize those attributes that make one player (Jeter) more valuable then someone who may have better stats. (Carlos Guillen in 2004 vs. Jeter had better stats, but Jeter is the player you would want more than Guillen)

How in the world does some people think that a 28 year old who strikes out as much as Leone deserves a shot at a starting 3rd base job in the majors. The strikeouts by Leone are a huge concern. In 2003 I researched every major league player in the Majors. Of every major league players only 2 have made it to the major leagues that have struck out as much as Leone has in the minor leagues. (This is per season not minor-league career.) Those 2 players are Ginter in Milwaukee and Tim Salmon of the Angels. Obviously only about 1% off all players who k as much as Leone ever make it and stick in the major leagues. People tend to forget that if you cannot make consistent contact as a minor leaguer then you probably will not make it as a major league player.